Comparative assessment of instability, decomposition, and forecasting of soybean production
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53550/jfl.v39i1.2498Keywords:
ARIMA, Soybean, Decomposition analysis, Holt’s linear exponential smoothing, Instability analysis, Time series modellingAbstract
The goal of the present study is to measure the instability, a factor affecting the production, and forecast the area, production, and yield of soybean in Madhya Pradesh and India. Secondary data for the period 1970 to 2023 was used to analyse soybean area, production and productivity. Instability analysis showed a decline in instability from Period I to Period II, except in the case of soybean yield in Madhya Pradesh. Decomposition analysis showed that in Madhya Pradesh and India, yield had a greater contribution to production than the area effect for the entire study period. Using R2, MAE, MAPE, and RMSE, two forecasting models, ARIMA and Holt’s Linear Exponential Smoothing,were compared. In both regions, ARIMA performed better than Holt’s method for the majority of parameters. ACF and PACF residual diagnostics were used to verify the model’s adequacy. According to the forecast, Madhya Pradesh and India will produce 6,195.5 thousand and 15,881.5 thousand tonnes of soybeans, respectively, by 2030. Meanwhile, Madhya Pradesh and India are expected to cultivate 6,755.2 thousand hectares and 14,483.9 thousand hectares of soybeans, respectively. The findings show that the ideal model varies based on the parameter taken into consideration and that no single model performs best across all evaluation criteria.
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